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Predictions of many robots in industry have yet come true. For ten years or more, manufact

urers of big robots have explained how their machines can make industry mom competitive and productive. The maker for 【21】______ robots is oversupplied now, and the driving force of the robotics(机器人学) revolution is 【22】______ to be with makers of machines that handle a few kilos at most.

"Heavy-robot manufacturers are in some difficulty 【23】______ finding ustomer. They are offering big 【24】______ just to get in the door. There has been a 【25】______ growth everywhere in the numbers of robots, so we admit we are either deceiving 【26】______ or that the market is slowly growing. "said John Reekie, chairman of Colen botics. "The following things must happen 【27】______ the robotics revolution to occur. We must achieve widespread robot literacy(文化), 【28】______ there has been a computer 【29】______ program, there must be a robot prices. 【30】______ , some kind of artificial intelligence needs to be 【31】______ .

Colen makes educational robots and machine tools. It is small 【32】______ with companies like ASEA or Fujitsu Fanuc. But Colen with others and departments in universities such as Surrey, Manchester, and Durham possess an advantage 【33】______ the giants. The big companies sell very expensive 【34】______ to businesses with expert knowledge in automation. The 【35】______ companies make robots for teaching people, and now they have realized that there is a need for small, 【36】______ robots that they can meet.

The little companies either bring their educational machines 【37】______ an industrial standard or design from the start. One technique that they all adopt is to choose 【38】______ components where possible. The major cost of making 【39】______ their models is the electronics, which will fall in price. There is 【40】______ scope for reductions in mechanical costs. The sue of standard parts, which are easily replaced, should give these robots a mechanical life of something in the order of five years.

【21】

A．small

B．educational

C．big

D．business

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更多“Predictions of many robots in …”相关的问题

第1题

Any physical theory is always provisional, in the sense that it is only a hypothesis: you

can never prove in. No matter how many times the results of experiments agree with some theory, you can never be sure that the next time the result will not contradict the theory. On the other hand, you can disprove a theory by finding even a single observation that disagrees with the predictions of the theory. As philosopher of science Karl Popper has emphasized, a good theory is characterized by the fact that it makes a number of predictions that could in principle be disproved or falsified by observation. Each time new experiments are observed to agree with the predictions the theory survives, and our confidence in it is increased; but if ever a new observation is found to disagree, we have to abandon or modify the theory. At least that is what is supposed to happen, but you can always question the competence of the per son who carried out the observation.

In practice, what often happens is that a new theory is devised that is really an extension of the previous theory. For example, very accurate observations of the planet Mercury revealed a small difference between its motion and the predictions of Newton's theory of gravity. Einstein' s general theory of relativity predicted a slightly different motion from Newton's theory. The fact that Einstein's predictions matched what was seen, while New ton's did not, was one of the crucial confirmations of the new theory. However, we still use Newton's theory for all practical purposes because the difference between its predictions and those of general relativity is very small in the situations that we normally deal with. (New ton's theory also has the great advantage that it is much simpler to work with than Einstein' s!)

A good title for this passage is ______.

A．The History of Physical Science

B．Karl Popper's Physical Theory

C．The Philosophy of Science

D．Einstein's Theory of Science

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第2题

There is a body of literature making forecasts-most of them believable-about the near futu

re and this catalogue of predictions is getting fatter by the day. These predictions range 【C1】______ the listing of new devices to the ways 【C2】______ which they will alter the daily habits of the citizen. In general, we shall spend 【C3】______ time at home as it 【C4】______ easier to communicate without 【C5】______ to meet other people, for example, shopping by television and 【C6】______ video conferences. It is said that it will be easier than ever 【C7】______ to leave the house. In fact, this narrowing of horizons is already 【C8】______ offer, particularly in the field of leisure.

There are 【C9】______ programs on the market 【C10】______ can take you to visit a museum. You 【C11】______ on the computer screen and select a 【C12】______ . Then you enter the room you have 【C13】______ and look at the exhibits. You can 【C14】______ in front of a picture, enlarge any detail you may 【C15】______ to and ask for information. You can stay as 【C16】______ as you like, at any time of the day or night, 【C17】______ meeting any people. And you don't need to 【C18】______ an entrance fee, that is to say, 【C19】______ you have to do is connect the computer in the 【C20】______ of your own home. It saves many of your trips to do things that traditionally involve going outside.

【C1】

A．with

B．from

C．on

D．in

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第3题

Many publications made private inquiries before presidential election, generally by means

of questionnaires sent to subscribers and by telephone surveys. The principle common to all these inquiries was that they depended on quantity rather than quality; little effort was made to reach representatives of all segments of the population. Still, the erroneous belief persisted that the greater the number of questionnaires, the more accurate the results would be. The record was held by the American monthly Literary Digest, which sent out millions of postcards with short and pointed questions before each election, and received many hundreds of thousands of replies. In fact, in 1932, the Literary Digest's forecast was off by only 1%.

In view of such striking achievements, it seemed rather improper for the young American journlist, George Gallup, to claim that large numbers were irrelevant, and that equally accurate or better predictions could be made with a small but carefully selected sample of the population and a small team of skilled interviewers.

In 1936, Gallup convinced thirty-five newspaper editors that his system was much cheaper than the customary mass inquiries and that it could provide surprisingly accurate predictions. The editors finally agreed. On condition that if Gallup's predictions were less accurate than those obtained by the tried method of the Literary Digest, he would have to refund the entire cost of the investigation. Although the Literary Digest broke its own record by obtaining two million replies to its electoral postcards that year, its prediction was wrong by 19%, whereas Gallup's was off by less than 1%.

Suddenly Gallup's name was on everyone's lips. Not only was he the prophet of the moment, but it was generally conceded that he had founded a new and most important scientific method of prediction. He was showered with money and commissions, and the Gallup Poll becomes a common term for public opinion polls.

Gallup usually samples his subjects according to six factors: state, size of community, age, sex, income, and political affiliation. From time to time, other factors may be considered, during time of war, for instance, the national origins of electors may be taken into account.

Only when the composition of the electorate has been accurately determined can the purely arithmetical question -- how many people in each bracket must be interviewed -- be solved. Once this is done, laws of probability take over, and the more people interviewed, the more exact the estimates will be. However, above a certain maximum number of interviews, the accuracy increases by no more than a fractional percentage -- and where errors of up to 2% are permissible, a few thousand questionnaires will accurately reflect the opinions of the total United States electorate.

Gallup's method of sampling the electorate was successful. Before Gallup, political predictions were no more than shots in the dark, and it is as a result of his achievement that today we can make truly scientific forecasts in this difficult field.

How does the author like the common principle held in the pre-election poll？

A．It was successful because it took all sections of the population into consideration.

B．It was successful because the publications sent out numerous questionnaires.

C．It was unsuccessful because it didn't take the composition of the electorate into consideration.

D．It was unsuccessful because it put emphasis on quality instead of quantity.

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第4题

The standardized educational or psychological tests, which are widely used to aid in selec

ting, assigning or promoting students, employees and military personnel, have been the target of recent attacks in books, magazines, the daily press, and even in Congress. The target is wrong, for, in attacking the tests, critics divert attention from the fault that lies with ill-in formed or incompetent users. The tests themselves are merely specified condition. Whether the results will be valuable, meaningless, or even misleading depends partly upon the tool itself but largely upon the user.

All informed predictions of future performance are based upon some knowledge of relevant past performance. How well the predictions will be validated by later performance depends up on the amount, reliability and appropriateness of the information used and on the skill and wisdom with which it is interpreted. Anyone who keeps careful score knows that the information available is always incomplete and that the predictions are always subject to error.

Standardized tests should be considered in this context: they provide a quick, objective method of getting some kind of information about what a person has learned, the skills he has developed, or the kind of person he is. The information so obtained has, qualitatively, the same advantages and shortcomings as other kinds of information~ Whether to use tests; other kinds of information, or both in a particular situation depends, therefore, upon the empirical evidence concerning comparative validity and upon such factors as cost and availability.

In general, the tests work most effectively when the traits or qualities to be measured can be most precisely defined(for example, ability to do well in a particular course of training pro gram)and least effectively when what is to be measured of predicted cannot be well defined, for example, personality or creativity. Properly used, they provide a rapid means of getting comparable information about many people~ Sometimes they identify students whose high potential has not been previously recognized.

In this passage, the author is primarily concerned with ______.

A．the necessity of standardized tests

B．the validity of standardized tests

C．the method used in interpreting the results of standardized tests

D．the theoretical grounds of standardized tests

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第5题

In many parts of the world cars play an essential role in daily life and many societies wo

uld cease to function without them. So, tile claim that in 20 years' time, no one will own cars may be hard to believe. But this is tile prediction made by a team of transport researchers who are taken seriously, not only by governments but also by car manufacturers.

The Human Science and Advanced Technology Institute at Loughborough in the U. K. is part of an international research program. The team there believes that by 2020 all cars will be computerized which will mean gigantic fuel savings, no accidents and better use of roads. The super-intelligent car of the 21 st century will drive itself, and it will not be owned by one individual. Instead, we will have a choice of cars and change them as frequently as we change our clothing.

According to Dr. David Davies, who leads the research team, these predictions are based on the rising cost of the car culture, which had blocked up our cities, polluted our air, and caused more deaths' than both world wars put together. Davies says, cars will be fitted with intelligent cruise-con-trol devices to regulate the distance between one car and another. Brakes and accelerators will become redundant(多余的) because the car will automatically speed up, or slow down, to match the speed of the car in front. Computers are much safer drivers than people, so cars and trains will be able to drive much closer together than cars driven by people.

By 2010, David Davies maintains, car technology will give motorists a clear view of the road, whatever the weather conditions, by projecting an image of the road ahead onto the car's windscreen. And, by 2020, cars will travel in convoy, linked to each other electronically. Cars will be connected by an electronically bar to the car in front to form. "road-train". "The front vehicle in such a train," says Davies. "But all the others in the train would burn about ten percent of the normal amount, and so produce about ten percent of the poollution."

We know that governments and car manufacturers______.

A．don't believe the prediction that nobody will own cars by 2020

B．are devoted to the technological innovation in car industry

C．consider the predictions made by the researchers seriously

D．have put the super-intelligent car into mass production

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第6题

Earthquakes are the most lethal of all natural disasters. What causes them？ Geologists exp

lain them in terms of a theory known as plate tectonics. Continents are floating apart from each other, this is referred to as the continental drift. About sixty miles below the surface of the sea, there is a semimolten bed of rock over which plates, or slabs, carry continents and sea floors at a rate of several inches a year. As the plates separate from each other, a new sea floor is formed by the molten matter that was formerly beneath. Volcanic islands and large mountain ranges are created by this type of movement. The collision of plates causes geological instability such as that in California called the San Andreas Fault, located between the Pacific and North American plates. The plates there are constantly pushing and pulling adjacent plates, thereby creating constant tremors and a potential for earthquakes in the area.

Geologists would like to be able to predict earthquakes accurately. Using laser beams, seismographs, gravity-measuring devices, and radio telescopes, they are presently studying the San Andreas Fault to determine the rate of strain and the amount of ground slippage. Calculations indicate that sometime within the next ten years, California will be struck by a major earthquake.

In spite of the geologists' theory of plate tectonics, there are still gaps in man's understanding and knowledge of the causes of earthquakes. Powerful earthquakes have occurred in places where plate boundaries are hundreds of miles away. In the 1800s, New Madrid, Missouri and Charleston, South Carolina, were shaken by earthquakes that no one had foreseen.

Certain areas of the world are quake prone. Italy, Yugoslavia, and Algeria have experienced many quakes. In November 1980, Naples was struck by an especially devastating quake. China and Japan have also been hit by horrendous quakes. In 1923, Tokyo and Yokohama were reduced to rubble by gigantic tremors that were followed by fires, tornadoes, and finally a thirty-four-foot tsunami, or tidal wave, which was caused by the earth's drop into the waters of Tokyo Bay. More than 150,000 people died in that earthquake.

What effects have geologists' predictions of earthquakes had？ The Chinese in Haicheng in 1974 were warned that an earthquake might occur within the next year or two. With the help of amateur seismologists' observations of animal behavior. and the rise and fall of water in wells and measurements of quantities of radioactive gas in water, professional geologists were able, in January 1975, to predict an earthquake within the next six months. On February 4, Haicheng was destroyed, but because its residents have been evacuated, very few people were killed. In California, where earthquake is an ever present menace, building codes now require quakeproof structures, and Civil Defense units have intensified their training in how to deal with disaster should it strike or, perhaps more accurately, when it strikes. Should predictions of a quake within the next ten years be accurate, many Californians may be able to save both their lives and their property.

Continental drift is the concept that ______.

A．continents are drawing nearer to each other

B．continents are separating

C．continents are 60 miles apart from each other

D．new continents are developing beneath the sea

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第7题

A scientific theory is a public pronouncement that indicates what a scientist believes t

o be true about his or her specific area of investigation. And the beauty of scientific theories is they help us to 【M1】______ organize our thinking about a broad arrange of observations and 【M2】______ events. Imagine how life might be like for a researcher who plugs 【M3】______ away at collecting data and cataloging fact after fact with organizing 【M4】______ this information around a set of concepts and propositions. Chances are that this person would eventually be swamped by seemingly unconnected facts, thus qualifying as a trivia expert who lacks "big 【M5】______ picture." So theories are of critical importance to developmental psychology, for each of them provides us with a "lens" which we 【M6】______ might interpret any number of specific observations about developing individuals. What are the characteristics of a good theory？ Ideally, it should be concise, or parsimonious, and thus be able to explain a broad 【M7】______ range of phenomena. A theory with few principles that accounts of a 【M8】______ large number of empirical observations is much more useful than a second theory that requires many more principles and assumptions to explain the same number of observations. In addition, good theories are falsifiable — that is, capable of making explicit predictions about future events so that the theory can be supported or disconfirmed. And, as implied by the falsifiability criterion, good theories do not limit themselves to which is already known. Instead, they are 【M9】______ heuristic — meaning that they build on existing knowledge by continuing to generate testable hypotheses that, if confirmed by future research, will lead to a much rich understanding of the 【M10】______ phenomena under investigation.

【M1】

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第8题

A number of predictions can be disproved by ______.A．observationsB．experimentsC．theoriesD．

A number of predictions can be disproved by ______.

A．observations

B．experiments

C．theories

D．hypotheses

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第9题

Most doctors are too optimistic in predicting how long dying patients have to live, and th

is has a negative effect on the care they receive in their final days, American researchers said Friday.

A study by scientists at the University of Chicago Medical Center in Illinois showed that of the survival estimates for 486 terminally ill patients given by 343 doctors, (46) .

(47) , and in some cases doctors predicted patients had five time longer to live than proved to be the case.

"Doctors are inaccurate in their prognoses(预后)for terminally ill patients and the error is systematically optimistic," professor Nicholas Christakis and Dr Elizabeth Lamont said in a report in The British Medical Journal.

The researchers added that doctors who knew their patients best were more likely to get it wrong.

" (48) ...the type of systematic bias toward optimism that we have found in doctors' objective prognostic assessments may be adversely(不利地)affecting patient care," the researchers added.

Instead of receiving three months of hospice care, which is considered to be the ideal, (49) .

Patients who thought they had longer to live also opted for more aggressive treatment instead of palliative(治标的)care, the report said.

The researcher suggested doctors should get second opinions from colleagues, (50) , before giving a prognosis.

"Reliable prognostic information is a key determinant in both doctors' and patients' decision making," they said.

A. many patients received only one month's care because of the optimistic prognosis.

B. Although some error is unavoidable

C. a lot of patients are eager to leave the hospital.

D. only 20 percent were accurate

E. particularly if they know a patient well.

F. Sixty three percent of the predictions overestimated the time patients had left.

(46)

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第10题

In 1950 it was predicted that eight or ten electronic computers would be sufficient to han

dle all the scientific and business needs of the United States. Likewise, the chief executive officer of IBM advised the company not to invest time or money in developing computers because he foresaw a limited commercial market. But these predictions were proved totally inaccurate as the computer industry developed into a multibilliondollar business. Today the computer plays a vital role in the lives of many Americans and is seen as one of the greatest technological developments of all times.

Since computers can handle large amount of data rapidly and efficiently, categorize, process, and report information for a variety of business operations, they, in fact, have a virtually unlimited capacity for producing business data. However, computers can't think, their role in business is limited to those areas in which they can process information more efficiently and effectively than human being. At the administrative level, managers decide how computers and humans can be used most effectively to perform. a particular business task.

Computers have become an integral part of day-to-day business transactions as well as analytic tools for long range planning, research, and development. Even a small business can utilize computers by either purchasing a small unit known as a minicomputer, leasing one, or by timesharing. In a timesharing system, each user is regularly scheduled for time to use the computer system. A wide variety of businesses and individuals participate in timesharing computer system.

By performing data processing tasks such as accounting and billing, computers are playing an increasingly important role in businesses. Currently, business are developing overall management information systems in which computers function as essential tools in solving problem and decisionmaking at all administrative levels.

Since 1950s, the computer industry has ______.

A．declined

B．remained about the same

C．increased tremendously

D．increased slightly

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