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Futurists have identified two changes that seem to be central to contemporary social life.

First, the United States is being restructured from an industrial to an information society. Second, modem societies are increasingly shifting from a national to a global economy. Futurists have applied a good many metaphors to these changes, including Daniel Bell's "postindustrial society," Alvin Toffler's "the third wave" and John Naisbitt's "megatrends". Common to these metaphors is the notion that American society is shifting from the production of goods to the production of services and from society based on the coordination of people and machines to a society organized around knowledge. These changes, it is contended, will afford a great variety of choices. The world will increasingly be one of many flavors, not just vanilla or chocolate.

Many observers of contemporary American life believe that we are witnessing a historical change and the first major impact of the shift from an energy economy to an information economy. For 300 years technology has been cast in a mechanical model, one based on the combustion processes that go on inside a star like the sun. The steam engine opened the mechanical age, and it reached its apex with the discovery of nuclear fission and nuclear fusion, which replicated the energy producing processes of a star. We now seem to be moving toward a biological model based on information and involving the intensive use of materials. Although biological processes need physical energy and materials, they tend to substitute information for both. Biological processes "miniaturize" size, energy, and materials by "exploding" information. The human brain is some ten times the size, and weight of the brain of a monkey, but it handles a billion times more information. As a result, high tech industries are information intensive rather than energy or material intensive.

Sociologists have played and will continue to play an important role in assessing and interpreting these developments and other aspects of change.

It can be inferred that underlying the two changes is the change of

A.the instrument of production.

B.the size of the society.

C.the social structure.

D.the economic market.

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更多“Futurists have identified two …”相关的问题
第1题
Futurists love computers. After all,40 years ago electronic digital computers didn't exist
; today microchips as tiny as a baby's fingernail are making all sorts of tasks faster and easier. Surely the future holds still more miracles.

Some of the computer experiments now going on inspire exciting visions of the future. For example, scientists are working on devices that can electronically perform. some sight and hearing functions, which could make life easier for the blind and deaf. They're also working on artificial arms and legs that respond to the electric impulses produced by the human brain. Scientists hope that some day a person who's lost an arm could still have near-normal brain control over an artificial arm.

Video games, computerized special effects in movies, and real-life training machines now being used by the US Army are causing some people to predict new educational uses for computers. Computers could some day be used to simulate travel to other planets, to explore the ocean floor, or to look inside an atom.

Experiments with electronic banking and shopping inspire predictions that these activities will soon be done from home computer terminals. Cars, too, might be equipped with computers to help drivers find their way around (Honda has one in an experimental car) or to communicate with home and office computers. Many people, including handicapped workers with limited ability to move around, already are working at home using computer terminals. Each terminal is connected to a system at a company's main office. Some futurists say the day may come when few people will have to leave home to go to work -- they'll just turn on a terminal

A growing number of factories such as the General Motors Plant in Newark, Delaware, "hire" computerized robots to perform. tasks such as spot welding. Some executives get a gleam in their eyes as they envision the spread of these "perfect workers" -- no coffee breaks, no strikes, and no vacations or sick days.

These modern and potential computer uses are possible because of the silicon microchip.

These chips, which have become increasingly complex since their beginning in 1959, contain a network of information pathways. Electronic impulses travel along the paths. The plans for a chip look much like a city street plan and can be as large as a football field. It can take as long as three months to complete a new chip design. Chips are used to store information, too. An entire "computer" can be put onto one chip -- called a microprocessor.

As chips become even more complex, easier to make, and less costly, futurists predict limitless possibilities. A group of Japanese scientists is working on a new generation of computers, which they hope will be able to understand vocal instructions, talk back to their users, and automatically try out alternate solutions to a problem to come up with the best answer.

Some people say that the humans of the future will never be without their companion -- computers. Predicting the future can be tricky, of course. In 1948 an IBM study predicted that there would never be enough demand for computers to justify going into the business!

What is the purpose of the passage?

A.To tell the readers what computers will look like in the future.

B.To show the close relations between man and computers.

C.To tell the readers how important silicon microchips are.

D.To talk about the possible future uses of computers.

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第2题
According to the text, the most important for the futurists to grasp is ______.A.the futur

According to the text, the most important for the futurists to grasp is ______.

A.the future world

B.the present world

C.what is happening now

D.the world trends

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第3题
Futurists claim that we must______.A.increase the production of literatureB.use' poetry to

Futurists claim that we must______.

A.increase the production of literature

B.use' poetry to relieve modem stress

C.develop new modes of expression

D.avoid using adjectives and verbs

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第4题
地面二次雷达显示器显示飞机目标不清晰时,飞行员空按下什么按钮()。

A.TEST

B.IDENT

C.REPORT

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第5题
According to the writer, people often assume different statuses ______.A.in order to ident

According to the writer, people often assume different statuses ______.

A.in order to identify themselves with others

B.in order to better identify others

C.as their mental processes change

D.as the situation changes

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第6题
Thejobofthefuturistsisto__________.[A]estimatethefrequencyoftechnologicaldevelopments[B]fo

The job of the futurists is to__________. [A]estimate the frequency of technological developments[B]forecast the significant technologies of the future[C]prepare the potential market for each technology[D]adjust the time of arrival of new technologies

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第7题
根据短文,回答1~5题Revolutionaryinnovationisnowoccurringinallscientificandtechnologicalfiel

根据短文,回答1~5题Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields.This wave of unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology。but it is much larger in scope.We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution. To anticipate developments in this field,the George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies was launched at the start of the l990s.We have now completed four rounds of our Delphi survey—in l990,1992,1994,and l996一giving us a wealth of data and experience.We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades. Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology.Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research。while those more than 30 0r 40 years away are mostly speculation.This leaves a l0一to 20一year window in which to make useful forecasts.It is this time frame that our Forecast addresses. The Forecast uses diverse methods,including environmental scanning,trend analysis,Delphi surveys, and model building.Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies.Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study,and a modified Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts.Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of providing respondents with immediate feed— back and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus.we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years. Fimlly,the resuIts are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change.By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach,the Forecast can produce more reliable,useful estimates. For our latest survey conducted in l996,we selected 85 emerging technologies representing the most crucial advances that can be foreseen We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when(or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream, the probability that it would happen,and the estimated size of the economic market for it.In short,we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually“emerged”. What we are faced with at present can be best described as a revolution in__________. [A]information[B]advanced method[C]science[D]technology

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第8题
Part ADirections :Read the following four .texts. Answer the questions below each text by

Part A

Directions :

Read the following four .texts. Answer the questions below each text by choosing A, B, C or D.Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET1.

Text 1

Revolutionary innovation is now occurring in all scientific and technological fields. This wave of unprecedented change is driven primarily by advances in information technology ,but it is much larger in scope. We are not dealing simply with an Information Revolution but with a Technology Revolution.

To anticipate developments in this field ,the George Washington University Forecast of Emer-ging Technologies was launched at the start of the 1990s. We have now completed four rounds of N our Delphi survey - in 1990,1992,1994,and 1996 - giving us a wealth of data and experience .We now can offer a reasonably clear picture of what can be expected to happen in technology over the next three decades.

Time horizons play a crucial role in forecasting technology. Forecasts of the next five to ten years are often so predictable that they fall into the realm of market research ,while those more than 30 0r 40 years away are mostly speculation. This leaves a lO-t0 20-year window in which to make useful forecasts.lt is this time frame. that our Forecast addresses.

The Forecast uses diverse methods ,including environmental scanning ,trend analysis ,Delphi surveys ,and model building. Environmental scanning is used to identify emerging technologies.Trend analysis guides the selection of the most important technologies for further study ,and a modi-fied Delphi survey is used to obtain forecasts. Instead of using the traditional Delphi method of pro-viding respondents with immediate feedback and requesting additional estimates in order to arrive at a consensus ,we conduct another survey after an additional time period of about two years.

Finally ,the results are portrayed in time periods to build models of unfolding technological change. By using multiple methods instead of relying on a single approach ,the Forecast can produce more reliable ,useful estimates.

For our latest survey conducted in 1996,we selected 85 emerging technologies representing the most crucial advances that can be foreseen. We then submitted the list of technologies to our panel of futurists for their judgments as to when(or if) each technological development would enter the mainstream ,the probability that it would happen ,and the estimated size of the economic market for it .ln short ,we sought a forecast as to when each emerging technology will have actually "e-merged. "

41. What we are faced with at present can be best described as a revolution in

[ A] information.

[ B ] advanced method.

[ C] science.

[ D] technology.

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第9题
请根据短文的内容,回答题。 The State of Marriage TodayIs there something seriously wrong w

请根据短文的内容,回答题。

The State of Marriage Today

Is there something seriously wrong with marriage today? During the past 50 years, the rate of divorce in the United States has exploded: almost 50% of marriages end in divorce now, and the evidence suggests it is going to get worse. If this trend continues, it will lead to the breakup of the family, according to a spokesperson for the National Family Association. Some futurists predict that in 100 years, the average American will marry at least four times, and extramarital (婚外的)affairs will be even more common than they are now.

But what are the reasons for this, and is the picture really so gloomy (昏暗的 )? The answer to the first question is really quite simple: marriage is no longer the necessity it once was. The institution of marriage has been based for years partly on economic need. Women used to be economically dependent on their husbands, as they usually didn&39;t have jobs outside the home. But with the rising number of women in well-paying jobs, this is no longer the ease, so they don&39;t feel that they need to stay in a failing marriage.

In answer to the second question, the outlook may not be as pessimistic (悲观的 ) as it seems.

While the rate of divorce has risen, the rate of couples marrying has never actually fallen very much, so marriage is still quite popular. In addition to this, many couples now simply live together and don&39;t bother to marry. These couples are effectively married, but they do not appear in either the marriage or divorce statistics. In fact, more than 50% of first marriages survive.

So is marriage really an outdated institution? The fact that most people still get married indicates that it isn&39;t. And it is also true that married couples have a healthier life than single people: they suffer less from stress and its consequences, such as heart problems, and married men generally consider themselves more dependent than their single counterparts. Perhaps the key is to find out what makes a successful marriage and apply it to all of our relationships!

Which of the following is true about the marriage in the United States today? 查看材料

A.Divorce leads to the breakup of the family

B.More than half of the married couples get divorced

C.American people marry more than four times

D.More and more people are getting divorced

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第10题
People in business can use foresight to identify new products and services, as well as mar
kets for those products and services. An increase in minority populations in a neighborhood would prompt a grocer with foresight to stock more foods linked to ethnic tastes. An art museum director with foresight might follow trends in computer graphics to make exhibits more appealing to younger visitors.

Foresight may reveal potential threats that we can prepare to deal with before they become crises. For instance, a corporate manager with foresight might see an alarming rise in local housing prices that could affect the availability of skilled workers in the region. The public's changing values and priorities, as well as emerging technologies, demographic shifts, economic constraints (or opportunities), and environmental and resource concerns are all parts of the increasingly complex world system in which leaders must lead.

People in government also need foresight to keep systems running smoothly, to plan budgets, and to prevent wars. Government leaders today must deal with a host of new problems emerging from rapid advances in technology.

Even at the community level, foresight is critical: School officials, for example, need foresight to assess numbers of students to accommodate, numbers of teachers to hire, new educational technologies to deploy, and new skills for students (and their teachers) to develop.

Many of the best-known techniques for foresight were developed by government planners, especially in the military, when the post-World War Ⅱ atomic age made it critical to "think about the unthinkable" and prepare for it. Pioneering futurists at the RAND Corporation (the first "think tank") began seriously considering what new technologies might emerge in the future and how these might affect U.S. security. These pioneering futurists at RAND, along with others elsewhere, refined a variety of new ways for thinking about the future.

The futurists recognized that the future world is continuous with the present world, so we can learn a great deal about what may happen in the future by looking systematically at what is happening now. The key thing to watch is not events (sudden developments or one-day occurrences) but trends (long-term ongoing shifts in such things as population. land use, technology, and governmental systems). Using these techniques and many others, futurists now can tell us many things that may happen in the future. Some are nearly certain to happen, such as the continuing expansion in the world's population. Other events are viewed as far less likely, but could be extremely important if they do occur, such as an asteroid colliding with the planet.

Correctly exercising foresight is shown in the case of ______.

A.new products and services

B.an increase in minority populations

C.stocking more foods with ethnic tastes

D.the appealing art museum director

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